Queensland has emerged as the epicenter of Australia’s housing demand crisis, with Brisbane officially joining the million-dollar median house price club for the first time in history. The milestone reflects broader challenges gripping the nation’s most rapidly growing state, where critical land shortages are colliding with unprecedented population growth.
According to the latest Cotality data, Brisbane’s median house price has reached $1,000,422, officially making it Australia’s second most expensive capital city. This achievement comes at a time when national housing demand continues to outpace supply across the country, but nowhere more dramatically than in the Sunshine State.
Breaking Barriers as Demand Outstrips Supply
The numbers tell a compelling story of market transformation. Brisbane’s house values have grown more than 50% since the onset of COVID, outperforming most other capital cities. What makes this growth particularly significant is the sustained nature of demand despite broader economic uncertainties affecting other markets.
“Investor demand continues to approach a new record,” explains Maree Kilroy, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics. Her assessment reflects broader market data showing investor loans surging by 34% nationally, with Queensland leading this charge.
The supply side presents an equally striking picture. Brisbane currently sits 34% below its five-year average for housing supply, creating intense competition among buyers. Vacancy rates have plummeted below 1% in many suburbs, leaving renters with limited options and property values climbing steadily.
Critical Land Shortage Fuels Price Acceleration
The land shortage crisis extends beyond Brisbane to encompass the entire South East Queensland region. Government data reveals that while Logan local government area holds the largest expected dwelling yield at 101,471 dwellings, the broader challenge of land availability continues to constrain development.
Queensland’s government has responded with ambitious targets, committing to deliver one million new homes by 2046. This includes 53,500 social and community homes as part of the Securing our Housing Foundations plan. Experts in the field wonder if these goals, however, are in line with the capacity for development and the trends in land release.
The Planning Minister now has additional authority to purchase land and establish easements for vital infrastructure thanks to the Housing Availability and Affordability Bill 2023. The scattered land holdings that have traditionally hindered development processes are intended to be addressed by these approaches.
However, there are still many real-world obstacles. Since the epidemic, construction costs have increased significantly, and in many places, government taxes and levies now account for about half of the price of new home and land packages. Despite policy changes, this fact makes it more and more difficult to provide affordable housing.
Developers like Brooklyn Homes provide a range of home options that are in line with changing lifestyle choices and urban planning requirements for potential purchasers navigating this complicated market. While the demand is pressing, careful planning remains essential to ensure that quality is not sacrificed in the rush to build.
Interstate Migration Drives Unprecedented Growth
The most significant aspect of Queensland’s housing story may be revealed by population dynamics. By 2046, Queensland’s population is expected to increase from 5.4 million to between 6.4 and 8.27 million, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This amounts to 2.2 million more individuals in need of housing solutions.
Many Australians have moved from Victoria and New South Wales in search of more inexpensive lifestyle options, resulting in a particularly noticeable increase in interstate migration. Despite Brisbane’s rising prices, the tendency exacerbated during the pandemic and doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
Griffith University urban planning specialist Dr. Amanda Clarke notes: “We’re witnessing families making well-considered choices about cost and lifestyle. Even with price increases, many still find Queensland offers better value than Sydney or Melbourne markets.”
The 2032 Olympic Games add another layer to demand projections. Infrastructure investments worth billions of dollars are already underway, including Cross River Rail, Brisbane Metro, and Queens Wharf developments. These projects enhance connectivity and liveability while attracting additional residents and investors to the region.
Suburban hubs such as Ipswich and Logan are becoming key growth corridors, with projects like house and land packages responding to the shifting focus on decentralised urban planning and community-oriented developments.
Investment Market Transformation
Queensland has surpassed Victoria in fresh financing commitments for the first time since 2009, marking a major milestone in investment activity. This change is a result of both rising investor confidence in the state’s long-term prospects and robust rental yields, which are currently between 4.5% and 5.2% for homes.
Tension is evident in the rental market itself. Strong demand and limited supply have caused unit rents to rise 4.5% annually. Finding inexpensive rental housing has grown more difficult for tenants like Sarah Chen, a nurse who relocated to Brisbane for employment.
“I’ve been looking for six months and competing with dozens of other applicants for every property,” Chen says. “The rental crisis is real, and it’s affecting healthcare workers, teachers, and other essential professionals who can’t afford to buy.”
This rental pressure creates additional investment appeal, but also highlights broader social challenges. Low-income earners and young professionals face particular difficulties accessing housing, even in a market historically known for affordability.
Policy Responses and Future Outlook
Government responses span multiple levels, from local planning reforms to federal housing initiatives. Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner has announced planning reviews of zoning laws to allow more development and higher density housing. The supply in the upcoming years may be greatly impacted by these developments.
The goal of the state government’s infill development policy is to provide incentives for mixed-tenure, medium-sized housing complexes in growing zones. A registration program for short-term rental homes, such as Airbnb, is also being studied; this could bring some properties back to long-term rental markets.
Industry projections indicate that growth will continue; NAB projects 5.4% gains for Brisbane in 2025, while Westpac projects a more cautious 3.0% growth. Throughout the year, supply-demand dynamics and changes in interest rates play a significant role in these forecasts.
Considering that current rates at 4.10% are predicted to decline through 2025, Reserve Bank choices will be critical. If construction activity doesn’t significantly improve, lower borrowing costs could exacerbate supply issues by further stimulating demand.
The Human Cost of Housing Pressure
Behind the statistics are real families navigating difficult decisions. First-home buyers face particular challenges, with many pushed toward units rather than houses, or relocating to outer suburbs with longer commutes.
The Queensland Government acknowledges these pressures through various first-home buyer incentives and social housing commitments. However, delivery timelines for new supply often extend years into the future, providing little immediate relief for current housing seekers.
Meanwhile, the effects of elevated national housing demand are being felt beyond Queensland. States such as New South Wales and Victoria are also under pressure, but Queensland’s relative affordability and infrastructure pipeline make it uniquely positioned to absorb some of this overflow, if supply bottlenecks can be addressed in time.
Conclusion
Queensland is at a turning point as it continues to lead the nation in the spike in home demand. How well Queensland can satisfy its present and future housing needs will depend on strategic land release, infrastructure investment, and coordinated planning between the public and private sectors.
The changing landscape offers both opportunities and risks to locals and industrial players. Brooklyn Homes and other developers are in a good position to support sustainable growth by carefully planning developments that complement economic and demographic trends.
Queensland’s capacity to lead ultimately depends on both execution and ambition. The secret to making sure that expansion doesn’t come at the price of affordability, quality, or community resilience is still to close the gap between policy and implementation.
